The March 2014 Architectural Billings Index results were
published last week. I’ve been regularly
tracking this index, which is a leading indicator for construction activity (about 9 – 12 months ahead of related construction activity), for a few years
now. For more background on this index, click
here…
On a national basis, the index score was 48.8, a
signicant drop from the month before (50.7).
In a nutshell, any number 50.0+ indicates increased architectural
billings and foretells increased construction activity. Many pundits suggest the unusually harsh
winter is the reason for the drop in the index.
The regional data suggests this may be true as in the warmer climates of
the West (50.7) and South (52.8) the index was above 50.0. The Northeast (46.8) and the Midwest (46.6)
was where the index was weakest.
These regional numbers were all stronger 12 months ago. The table below shows the March numbers for
2014 and 2013:
West
|
South
|
Northeast
|
Midwest
|
National
|
|
2014
|
50.7
|
52.8
|
46.8
|
46.6
|
48.8
|
2013
|
51.9
|
53.6
|
54.6
|
53.9
|
51.9
|
The numbers, year over year at March, dropped for all
regions but far more sharply in the colder weather climates. If weather was a factor, we should see these
numbers rebound in the Spring/Summer months.
The numbers suggest, in our region here in the West, that things are
stable and growth is moderate. The West
region numbers in 2012 and 2011 were 46.6 and 47.7 respectively, so things have
certainly improved these last few years.
Given this is a leading indicator, expect more of the same over the next
year in terms of construction activity, that is modest growth.
Businesses in the last few years have learned to be more
efficient, to do more with less. That is
always a good model, in good times or bad.
Let’s hope that more jobs, with healthier margins, go out to bid and
that you can be poised to take advantage of those opportunities when they
arise.